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Astra Ploiesti vs. Pandurii

Sun, 08 Apr 2012 11:32:22 +0100

Like a bet on the home side here. If you consider the form it doesn’t look like a logical selection but there are two things that make me believe Astra will edge this one. First of all I consider positive reaction from Astra players, starting from last weekend they have a new coach - and a really good one, Mircea Rednic, experienced pres. Dinu Gheorghe joined as well. New coach has got a positive result at his first match on Astra bench as he saw his side draw 0-0 away match at Gaz Metan. If he was okay with that draw there is only one outcome to consider today and that is only a win. The other reason to back Astra is that they meet a pretty much weakened Pandurii team who will be without Voiculet, Maxim and Pintilii, very important players. Adding the long term injuries they have would make it even worse. Cardoso was recalled from Pandurii second team but won’t be given a starting role. On the other hand, Astra’s coach will be able to use the same team he played Gaz Metan. Odds for home win got shortened in the last few days for good reason but to be honest I would consider backing them at any odds better than 2.00.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

Sat, 07 Apr 2012 15:15:46 +0100

Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
Kick-Off: 16:00 GMT

The Gunners are threatening to deliver the fatal blow to Manchester City’s title ambitions. The Citizens are really feeling the heat, having slipped five points behind rivals Man United in the Premier League race and should they fail to defeat Arsenal, they might as well consider that it’s all over. Of course there will still be six games to go, yet it will be simply suicidal for the Red Devils to waste such a huge points advantage in the remaining rounds. You may expect little sympathy from Arsene Wenger’s side, who has seen quite a few players lured away from the Emirates to join the wealthy Citizens. Wenger was clearly frustrated when asked about the latest rumours that Robin Van Persie could be involved in a summer saga. The fans will also give an unpleasant welcome to Samir Nasri, who returns to face his former club. Arsenal’s seven-game winning streak came to an end last week, when they lost to QPR. They are fighting to hold a place that will give them a Champions League ticket for next season, but they cannot take anything for granted since there are quite a few contenders already. German defender Per Mertesacker (DF, 21 apps / 0 goals) remains sidelined and there is always the name of Jack Wilshere on the injury-list, but the good news for Wenger are that he is able to choose from a nearly full-strength squad for this game.

Manchester City has already defeated Arsenal twice in the season. Their 1-0 win in the Carling Cup put an end in a woeful run of 28 games without a victory away at Arsenal in all competitions. That might be encouraging for Roberto Mancini’s side, yet can they do it for a third time in a row? It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that Sunday is “Judgement Day” for Mancini, who has found himself in a whole lot of mess lately. It was all praises and joy for the Italian manager back a few months, when the Sky Blues were appearing strong and confident. However, following their exits in the Champions League and the Europa League, as well as their failures in the FA Cup and the Carling Cup, the tide changed. As long as Man City was hot in the EPL title race, Mancini’s hope were pinned at winning the crown. Now that it’s looking to get beyond reach, he is receiving a lot of criticism. Mancini welcomes back Argentinean forward Sergio Aguero (27 apps / 17 goals), midfielder Samir Nasri (23 apps / 4 goals) and defender Joleon Lescott (24 apps / 2 goals) for the crucial visit to the Emirates. One final chance and that’s it… I will back the Citizens to keep their chances alive, securing a refund with a draw no bet option.

Possible line-ups:
ARSENAL: Szczesny - Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Gibbs - Arteta, Song, Rosicky - Walcott, Gervinho, Van Persie.
MANCHESTER CITY: Hart - Zabaleta, K. Toure, Kompany, Kolarov - Barry, Y. Toure, Nasri - Aguero, Dzeko, Balotelli.

H2H STATS

05/01/2011 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 0-0 (X)
29/04/2010 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 0-0 (X)
04/04/2009 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 2-0 (1)
25/08/2007 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 1-0 (1)
17/04/2007 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 3-1 (1)
22/10/2005 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 1-0 (1)
04/01/2005 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 1-1 (X)
01/02/2004 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 2-1 (1)
10/09/2002 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 2-1 (1)
28/10/2000 Arsenal vs. Manchester City: 5-0 (1)

Augsburg vs. Koln

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 18:25:33 +0100

Venue: SGL Arena, Augsburg
Kick-Off: 14:30 GMT

A battle for survival, with Augsburg enjoying a five-game unbeaten run and FC Koln trying to recover from last week’s heavy beating at the hands of Bundesliga leaders Dortmund. The hosts are boasting a record of 12 draws in the league, most of them in the second half of the season. They were lucky to salvage a point last weekend, when Verhaegh’s late goal leveled the game at Bremen. Coach Luhukay has made clear that he is not taking the poor performances of their next opponentsn into consideration and perhaps he might even be a little cautious about it. Forward Torsten Oehrl remains sidelined due to a thigh injury, while midfielders Marcel de Jong (12 apps / 1 goal) and Akaki Gogia (12 apps / 0 goals) are also unavailable.

Stale Solbakken is under heavy pressure and he is having trouble to cope with some of the stars in his team. Podolski is nowhere near his standards lately, while he is said to be interested to move to Arsenal in the next transfer window. Things are not looking good for the Billy Goats, who have lost eight of their last 11 matches. Fortunately they aren’t already inside the danger zone, due to their wins over rock-bottom Kaiserslautern and Hertha Berlin. Croatian midfielder Mate Jajalo is suspended for the trip to Augsburg, but besides him there aren’t any new concerns for the visitors.

I frankly think that Augsburg is a bit overestimated here by the bookies, basically due to the chaotic situation in their opponents’ camp. Somehow, I think that an electric shock is needed to Koln, following the 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Dortmund. You may have seen a strong reaction from teams who find themselves in a similar situation and a good example of that is Hertha. Last week the Berliners managed to fight back after a 6-0 defeat to Bayern and they earned an emphatic 3-1 victory at Mainz. Why not a similar scenario here?

Possible line-ups:
AUGSBURG: Jentzsch - Verhaegh, Sankoh, Langkamp, Ostrzolek - Callsen-Bracker, Hosogai, Koo, Baier, Bellinghausen - Molders.
KOLN: Rensing - Brecko, Sereno, Geromel, Eichner - Clemens, Lanig, Riether, Peszko - Podolski, Novakovic.

H2H STATS

07/05/2008 Augsburg vs. Koln: 0-2 (2)
14/08/2006 Augsburg vs. Koln: 1-3 (2)

APOEL vs. Real Madrid

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 10:25:43 +0100

APOEL is this years’ miracle in Champions League as it’s a Cyprus club with budget around 9 million Euros and now they play for the quarter finals at the Champions League against C. Ronaldo’s Real Madrid. I’ve watched both teams several times this year and APOEL’s success is not a luck-based success as it’s a good team and the players have a very good team spirit inside ad outside the field.

I rarely choose the market of Half Time / Full Time because i believe it’s a market which is difficult to make predictions. Regarding this specific match, which is an exception for me, i have a feeling that APOEL will not lose tonight. I believe Real Madrid will play as much as it is needed in order to get the draw from this game, as they have the second leg in their home where they can score a lot of goals.

From the other side APOEL will first of all try not to allow to the Spanish team to score a goal and if they will search for a chance to score a goal at counter attack that would be a great success for them.

I believe that the game is going to end at a draw either at 0-0 or 1-1. My stake is too low because the odds are too high, as Unibet offers one of the highest odds at Draw/Draw bet (9.25) for this game.

APOEL vs. Real Madrid

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 00:07:57 +0100

Venue: GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Kick-Off: 19:45 GMT

It will be a case of “David vs. Goliath” when APOEL faces Real Madrid on Tuesday. For the first time ever a team from Cyprus reaches the knock-out stages of the Champions League, so it is reasonable to say that they are living a fairytale at the moment. After the triumph over Lyon, most of APOEL players were saying that they were hoping to avoid Barcelona and Real Madrid in the next stage. However the draw wasn’t favorable at all, as it set up a historic encounter with the Merengues. The scorer of the single goal against Lyon, Gustavo Manduca, is suspended for tonight’s match, but besides the Brazilian forward Ivan Jovanovic has no other significant worries. The Serbian manager has acknowledged that eliminating Real Madrid would be a dream, yet he has asked his players to remain focused and gear up for the challenge of their lives.

Real Madrid are six points clear at the top of La Liga and they are favorites to reach the Champions League Final in Germany. Jose Mourinho tried to keep a low profile in the press conference ahead of Tuesday’s match, suggesting that APOEL should be given respect due to their achievements so far. The Special One has experienced a strong resistance in Cyprus, when Anorthosis held his Inter side to a draw. I am sure that he will not underestimate the Cypriot underdogs. Midfielder Xabi Alonso is suspended and he joins injured-hit Lassana Diarra on the sidelines.

I find it hard to say much when there is such a huge gap separating the two teams. Real Madrid can ease past APOEL in both matches. However what I would like to point out is that the Cypriots have an athletic squad which can press a lot and give their opponents a tough time. If Real Madrid doesn’t find an early goal, I think that the odds for an Under 2.5 goals scenario are bigger than what the prices offered suggest. Chances are that APOEL will not score and Real Madrid will not fire on all cylinders in the first leg.

Possible line-ups:
APOEL: Chiotis - Poursaitides, Paulo Jorge, Oliveira, Boaventura - Pinto, Nuno Morais, Sousa, Charalambides, Trickovski - Ailton.
REAL MADRID: Casillas - Arbeloa, Pepe, Sergio Ramos, Marcelo - Khedira, Granero, Ozil, Kaka - Ronaldo, Benzema.

OFI vs. Panathinaikos

Sat, 24 Mar 2012 13:32:25 +0000

Venue: Theodoros Vardinogiannis, Heraklion
Kick-Off: 17:30 GMT

Panathinaikos is in a state of shock, having suffered consecutive blows in the past 48 hours. First of all, the Members of the Board resigned yesterday and the future of the Club is uncertain. There is an urgent need for a cash injection in order to avoid trouble with UEFA licencing, but right now nobody is willing to spare any money at all. Following the riots in the derby against rivals Olympiakos, which forced the referee to abandon the game on the 87th min, Panathinaikos lost the game 3-0 on paper. In addition, 3 points were deducted from them and a furher 2 points will be deducted next season. The Greens will have to play the next 4 home games without their fans and they will also have to pay a 252.000 EUR fine. There is hardly any motivation for the remaining matches of the season, as the title has vanished and the best Panathinaikos can do is to compete for a ticket to the Champions League Qualifiers in the play-offs. Most of the fans are worried about the status of the Club and its future, rather than the outcome of any game and I am sure that the morale of the players has also hit an all-time low. Even manager Jesualdo Ferreira has revealed that he doesn’t see anything that could keep him in his place next season.

Regarding the trip to the island of Crete, midfielders Kostas Katsouranis (21 apps / 4 goals) and Simao (20 apps / 1 goal) are suspended. The star of the team, Sebastian Leto (17 apps / 15 goals) remains sidelined with a lengthy injury, as well as defender Mattias Bjarsmyr (9 apps / 0 goals), striker Rudolf Gergely (5 apps / 0 goals) and defender Giorgos Ioannidis (4 apps / 0 goals). French defender Jean-Alain Boumsong (13 apps / 3 goals) has shaken off his injury and he is expected to take his place in the starting line-up after nearly two months out of the action.

OFI had a midweek Cup game against Olympiakos, which they lost 1-0. The Cretans are on a downtrend, as they have managed to earn just one point in the last five league matches. Goalkeeper Polychronis Vezyridis (8 apps), who took the place of Roy Carroll ever since his departure for Olympiakos, has been involved in a doping scandal and he is not available today. Defender Boldiszar Bodor (DF, 14 apps / 0 goals) is injured, however coach Nikos Anastopoulos has no fresh concerns ahead of this game. Anastopoulos used to be one of the most prolific strikers in Greece, during his football days. He is a leading figure of Olympiakos’ history and that adds extra motivation to take advantage of Panathinaikos’ problems and pile the misery on the Green camp.

The prices have changed dramatically in most bookmakers, following the rapid developments in Panathinaikos. However, there is still value to my eyes. As a matter of fact, if OFI had more days to rest, I would take a bigger risk and back the straight home win at any odds above 4.00. I am going to stick with the home win with a Draw No Bet Option, which is still offered above 3.00, since I believe that the visitors will not have their minds on the game at all.

H2H STATS

21/12/2008 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 0-3 (2)
06/04/2008 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 4-1 (1)
01/10/2006 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 3-3 (X)
06/11/2005 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 0-2 (2)
25/05/2005 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 1-2 (2)
31/08/2003 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 1-3 (2)
05/01/2003 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 0-2 (2)
09/02/2002 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 0-1 (2)
29/10/2000 OFI vs. Panathinaikos: 0-0 (X)

Petrolul Ploiesti vs. Concordia Chiajna

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 10:11:17 +0000

Petrolul were a superior team in first part of the season as they already beat Concordia twice this season but considering the changes that happened in the winter break and both team results in first three games since league restarted it looks like Concordia is an improved team. However, this will not stop me and I’ll keep backing Petrolul, just like I did in first part of the season when I had bets on Petrolul +0.25 in away game and Petrolul -0.75 in the Cup. In the three games they’ve played so far Concordia have 2 wins and 1 defeat, that’s not something really impressive if you don’t know the teams they have beaten, both Rapid and Otelul went to Chiajna and got beaten while losing their away game 0-4 to Vaslui. Those were two big wins, still I will not jumping on them just because of that, I’ll probably give Concordia a go when they are back home in the following two games. Petrolul have had three tough contests too, they didn’t manage to take any big results but they could have won last game against U Cluj when they had 2-1 with only a few minutes to go. They’re home again hosting a team they’re in direct battle with in relegation, six pointer match, stadium will be open for everyone for first time since the Steaua incident. I agree that if someone would look at each team last results they would lean towards Concordia +0.5 as they recently beat Rapid and Otelul while Petroul haven’t won since matchday 15. Going against form here, I can look stupid or smart after this ends, but I consider home advantage can be decisive in a game with such importance, especially that the stadium is open to all Petrolul fans and the support that team will receive is bigger. Time for a Petrolul win and they keep fighting for a place of first football division next season.

Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 19:53:22 +0000

Venue: Borussia Park, Moenchengladbach
Kick-Off: 19:30 GMT

Bayern Munich can still make dreams about a treble this season, as they are competing in all three tournaments up to now (the Bundesliga, the German Cup and the Champions League). The Bavarian giants are firing up on all cylinders lately, having scored 20 goals in the past three matches. They cruised to an emphatic 7-0 victory over Basel in the second-leg of their Champions League tie and they demolished both Hoffenheim (7-1) and Hertha Berlin (6-0) in the league. Jupp Heynckes has silenced his critics following those impressive performances and he is now looking to take revenge for the two defeats suffered earlier at the hands of Borussia. Not an easy task, as Bayern doesn’t have fond memories of their visits to Moenchengladbach. However, the Reds can be inspired by the fact that Bayern has never been eliminated in the Cup from Gladbach. In the six Cup clashes between the two teams, the first four were decided in extra-time or even penalty shoot-outs. Bayern emerged victorious in all occasions and they also won the two most recent encounters in the DFB Pokal. The Bavarians will miss midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger (15 apps / 3 goals) and defender Daniel van Buyten (13 apps / 4 goals) for the trip to Borussia Park.

Borussia grabbed a vital 2-1 victory at Leverkusen on Saturday, but the three-game winless streak prior to that game had denied them a chance for the Bundesliga title. Of course, none would have expected such a successful run from the Foals at the beginning of the season. But Lucien Favre has taken the maximum from his players and created a team which plays attractive football. Gladbach has already beaten Bayern twice this season (1-0 at Munich and 3-1 at home), getting a league double over the Bavarians for the first time in their history. Grabbing a third in a row has been described as a “mission impossible” by director of sport Max Eberl. Statistically, that might be right. Yet I doubt that the hosts aren’t fired up for the semi-final. Midfielder Patrick Herrmann (19 apps / 6 goals) is available again after a lengthy injury and that might be regarded as a good sign from Lucien Favre. Herrmann was the man of the match in the 3-1 triumph over Bayern back in January, scoring two goals for his team. Defender Tony Jantshke (25 apps / 0 goals) returns also, after missing Saturday’s game due to suspension.

I was initially thinking about taking a long-shot at Over 3.5 goals (which William Hill offers at 3.00) since Bayern’s front line is on fire lately and that may lead to an open game early-on. However I chose the Asian Handicap of (+0.75) on Borussia instead, as the line is obviously wrong here. Having two outcomes in your favor and half your stake back in case of Bayern’s win by one goal is quite safe in this match. I maybe wrong of course, but I don’t think Bayern will have a walk in the park on Wednesday.

Possible line-ups:
GLADBACH: Ter Stegen - Jantschke, Stranzl, Dante, Daems - Neustadter, Nordtveit, Wendt, Arango - Reus, Hanke.
BAYERN MUNICH: Neuer - Lahm, Boateng, Badstuber, Alaba - Luiz Gustavo, Kroos, Robben, Ribery - Muller, Gomez.

H2H STATS

20/01/2012 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 3-1 (1)
06/11/2010 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 3-3 (X)
24/04/2010 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 1-1 (X)
15/11/2008 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2 (X)
05/05/2007 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 1-1 (X)
27/11/2006 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 1-3 (2)
30/10/2004 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 2-0 (1)
18/10/2003 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 0-0 (X)
10/08/2002 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 0-0 (X)
28/07/2001 Gladbach vs. Bayern Munich: 1-0 (1)

Ceahlaul vs. Vaslui

Sat, 17 Mar 2012 16:00:40 +0000

I’ve considered Vaslui as one of my possible bets this round since the odds were released, no big action regarding odds movement so I’m good to give it a try. Wanted to see first how Vaslui does in the Cup game against Otelul and I make my final decision, it happened they won in a thrilling 3-2 win, they have had a 2-0 lead in the second half and things seemed to be clear in what regards the team going to next round but Otelul fought back to make the game level in only two minutes, Vaslui’s new guy N’Doye scored the winning goal and that was the history of a really nice game to watch, we’ve had many goals, quick tempo at times, a much different game to ones they’ve played over the last few years when most of the games were very tight and low scoring. The key player in that win was Lucian Sanmartean, who is one of best players currently playing in Romania Liga 1 and by far best Romanian player in the league. He hasn’t had any goal on the scoresheet but provided three assists in something I call it classy performance.

Feeling better on their travels, at least they have won more points away than home. My expectations about Ceahlaul were different at the start of the season when I tried to anticipate how this team will do. They work well as an unit, defense is not bad but they don’t have too much to offer when it comes to scoring goals. If they could’ve/would’ve scored a few more they would feel safer now being ranked a few places up in the table. I feel that the way they will aproach this game could be killing fact for them, and I mean that if they are going to stay back and try to hit on counters - given the fact they play a big team of the league, will not be any good. Vaslui is dangerous team when they have ball possesion because quality of players they do have is really impressive, Vaslui do have individualities that could make the difference at any time of the game, I’m afraid at this point Ceahlaul will need a perfect defensive display to stay unbeaten. I really like Vaslui here, they are doing a great start of the year with 100% percent after three matches, they have confidence, ability, momentum on their side that justifies a bet on them. Also, I love the new coach mentality which seems to fit very well to players ability, he wants offensive football from his team and this is something Vaslui can do.

Nancy vs. Montpellier

Sat, 17 Mar 2012 00:18:00 +0000

Venue: Marcel Picot, Tomblaine
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT

Montpellier’s fairy tale continues as the team from southern France is the top-form team in Ligue 1 at the moment. Unbeaten during 2012, MHSC is trailing big spenders PSG by a single point and the fans are making dreams about winning the title for the first time in their history. Coach Rene Girard has built a wonderful team, which is running an eight-game undefeated streak (6 wins - 2 draws). They could have already climbed at the top if they hadn’t concede a late equalizer against PSG or at least if they didn’t slip up at Dijon. Girard is not giving up the chase, despite the fact that the chairman of the club Louis Nicollin said in an interview on Friday that he doesn’t believe in Santa Claus. Of course, even a second place will be a huge success for Montpellier, since it will automatically send them in the Champions League Groups.

Nancy are engaged in a relegation battle and they are currently out of the danger zone just on goal difference. A couple of weeks earlier they stunned Lyon, but that was their only win in the last six rounds. Jean Fernandez is hoping to have Daniel Niculae (21 apps / 6 goals) available for the visit of high-flying Montpellier, as the Romanian striker struggled with a hamstring problem lately. ASNL boss will definitely miss defender Jean Calve (8 apps / 1 goal), defender Helder (8 apps / 0 goals) and forward Benjamin Jeannot (6 apps / 0 goals).

Both teams are in desparate need of points for different reasons. The hosts are fighting to keep their top-flight status, while the visitors want to keep up the pressure on the league leaders. I expect to see a tight game, where the inferior team (in this case Nancy) will try to hold off the opposition and avoid trailing the score early on. Nancy has been a tough nut to crack at Stade Marcel-Picot and if you take a closer look in the stats, you will notice that 10 out of the 14 matches were tied at half time. What’s more interesting to observe is that Montpellier approaches the games conservatively. It is worth noticing that 10 out of their 11 last matches (both home and away) were draws after the end of the first half. I strongly believe that another 0-0 at half time is a highly possible scenario.

H2H STATS

30/01/2011 Nancy vs. Montpellier: 1-2 (2)
24/04/2010 Nancy vs. Montpellier: 0-0 (X)
20/08/2004 Nancy vs. Montpellier: 1-0 (1)

Lorient vs. Brest

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 21:16:03 +0000

Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT

Twelve matches without a win have pushed Lorient close to the danger zone, just one point clear of 18th-placed Dijon. Coach Christian Gourcuff was relieved about the point earned at Toulouse, which brought a four-game losing streak to an end. However, his team is still looking for its first win since November 27th and the pressure is piling on him. The upcoming fixtures involve some crucial matches against teams that have the same goal as Lorient and that’s of course to avoid getting into a relegation dogfight towards the end of the season. Gourcuff welcomes back quite a few regulars ahead of Brest’s visit. Midfielders Mathieu Coutadeur (20 apps / 2 goals) and Yann Jouffre (20 apps / 3 goals), as well as striker Jeremie Aliadiere (11 apps / 2 goals) have all shaken off their injuries and are available again. Moreover, Togolese midfielder Romao (23 apps / 1 goal) returns after serving a suspension. At the moment the physio room is not as crowded as it used to be and the missing players are Gilles Sunu (FW, 15 apps / 1 goal), Arnaud Le Lan (DF, 5 apps / 0 goals), Benjamin Lecomte (GK, 5 apps) and Julien Quercia (FW, 3 apps / 0 goals).

Brest is currently sitting 12th in the table rankings, yet they are just three points clear of the danger zone. The visitors have a woeful record on the road, as they haven’t won any match so far and they have scored just 4 goals (the poorest scoring record on away matches from all the teams in Ligue 1). Defender Omar Daf (8 apps / 0 goals) is suspended, while forward Alexandre Alphonse (5 apps / 0 goals) picked up an injury and he will sit out. In addition, there are the long-term absentees of Gregory Lorenzi (DF, 12 apps / 0 goals), Larsen Toure (FW, 8 apps / 1 goal), Jonathan Ayite (FW, 6 apps / 0 goals) and Diallo Guidileye (6 apps / 0 goals). There are some good news though for coach Alex Dupont, as midfielder Benoit Lesoimier (25 apps / 3 goals), defender Jonathan Zebina (22 apps / 0 goals) and midfielder John Culma (13 apps / 0 goals) return to the squad.

This is a local derby between two teams from the Britanny region. Lorient had the upper hand in the recent encounters and FCL can leapfrog their opponents if they win on Saturday. Christian Gourcuff’s side has been a slow-starter in most home games. 8 out of the 13 games at Stade du Moustoir were goalless draws at half time. On the other hand, Brest has drawn more games in the first 45 mins than any other team away from home (10/13) and they have failed to score in the last trips to Lorient. This looks like a good match to bet on the half-time draw to my eyes.

H2H STATS

29/01/2011 Lorient vs. Brest: 2-0 (1)
17/04/2006 Lorient vs. Brest: 5-0 (1)
16/12/2004 Lorient vs. Brest: 3-0 (1)

Udinese vs. AZ Alkmaar

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 12:56:12 +0000

Udinese is playing against AZ Alkmaar and the Italian team will try to qualify after the 2-0 defeat in the Netherlands, which gives a major advantage to the visitors. The Bianconeri have won only one game (in Toumpa against PAOK) in their last 6 Europa League games and I believe that it will be a very difficult match for them tonight.

On the other side, AZ seems to be in a better form than the Italians, as they have lost only one match in the last 8 games in all competitions. Following the 2-0 victory in the first-leg, they are very close to advance in the quarter-finals. Both teams will have some missing players as Udinese will miss Agyemang-Badu and Mauricio due to injuries, while Danilo is suspended. AZ Alkmaar will miss Maarten Martens and Charlison Benschop.

I believe that AZ will qualify tonight against Udinese and I think that the visitors are able to return home with at least a draw in their bag. I can’t trust Udinese for this game, so I will go with Alkmaar and I will pick +0.25 Handicap for them, hoping that they will not lose the game.

Chelsea vs. Napoli

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 11:42:30 +0000

Napoli travels to London to defend their 3-1 victory in the first-leg of the tie. They are only 90 minutes away from qualification to the next round and I expect that tonight we will watch a great game in Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea, despite their huge budget and great players is not playing attractive football lately and the Blues are not convincing that they will manage to overcome Napoli tonight. They have a new manager, as Villa-Boas got sacked and Roberto Di Matteo took over. Di Matteo will miss the services of Raul Meireles and Bosingwa for tonight’s game.

On the other hand, Napoli is performing great in the Italian Serie A and they have earned a significant advantage in their clash with Chelsea. Walter Mazzari is not going to change the formation for this game, so we will see the familiar 3-4-2-1 from the visitors.

I believe that it will be a very interesting game and I have the feeling that both teams will score tonight. Chelsea will have to score at least 2 goals in order to qualify, while Napoli is very dangerous in counter attacks, so surely they will have some chances to score too. I believe it will be an Over 2.5 game but I am tempted to risk a little bit more with an Over 3.25 goals @ 2.30 odds.

Possible starting lineups:
Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Essien, Lampard, Mata, Torres, Sturridge

Napoli
De Sanctis, Campagnaro, Cannavaro, Aronica, Maggio, Gargano, Inler, Zuniga, Hamsik, Lavezzi, Cavani

Panetolikos vs. Ergotelis

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:13:42 +0000

Venue: Panetolikos Stadium, Agrinio
Kick-Off: 15:15 GMT

The win at Xanthi kept Panetolikos’ chances to avoid relegation alive, yet it will be worthless if they fail to win on Sunday. The clash with Ergotelis is like a final for the Canaries, who find themselves stuck in the danger zone and they have a mountain to climb in the remaining fixtures. Seven rounds remain and if you take a closer look at the schedule you will see that Panetolikos will have to face PAOK (H), AEK (A), Olympiakos (H), OFI (A), Aris (H) and Panathinaikos (A) in the next matches. Facing the TOP-4 teams (Olympiakos, Panathinaikos, PAOK, AEK) in the last rounds would be the worst possible scenario for a team struggling to survive in any league, so that gives you a better perspective about the importance of this match for the hosts. Recently-appointed Takis Lemonis is hoping to have defender David Addy (20 apps / 1 goal) available again, since the Ghanaian left-back has resumed training. He cannot count however on the services of defenders William Edjenguele (16 apps / 2 goals) and Dimitris Koutroumanos (12 apps / 0 goals), as well as goalkeeper Srdjan Blazic (GK, 12 apps) who remain sidelined. Panetolikos is a team that most of the fans here in Greece would regret to see it go down to the 2nd division. The reason is that the club represents a big region in the western part of Greece and it has dedicated fans who pack the stadium and create an enthusiastic atmosphere.

Seven games without a win have pushed Ergotelis close to the danger pit and some fans are getting frustrated with the manager. Nikos Karageorgiou was relieved to get the back-up from the president of the club earlier this week, however he is not feeling comfortable at all. For the trip to Agrinio, the visitors are missing forward Sergio Leal (17 apps / 2 goals) and midfielder Michalis Fragoulakis (20 apps / 3 goals), who are both serving a suspension. Defender Georgi Shashiashvili (18 apps / 1 goal) returns to the squad, yet Sunday’s game comes too soon for Argentinean midfielder Diego Romano (8 apps / 2 goals) who resumed training on Friday after a long-term injury. Since I mentioned above the remaining fixtures for Panetolikos, let’s have a look at the next matches of Ergotelis. The Cretans will face Kerkyra (H), PAS Giannina (A), Atromitos (H), Doxa Dramas (A), Levadiakos (H) and Xanthi (A). You can easily notice that they have much more hopes of earning points, since four of these games are regarded as “six-pointers”.

The dilemma for me was whether to choose the Home Win or the Draw at Half Time in this tense game, which could be decided by a single goal. Both picks are priced evenly (around 2.00), but I decided to back Panetolikos due to the urgent need of points for the hosts.

Olympiakos vs. Panathinaikos

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:12:07 +0000

The big final of the Greek Cup is taking place at Elliniko Stadium between the top two Greek teams, the current Greek Cup winners Olympiakos Piraeus and the European Champions Panathinaikos. The two teams don’t have any major concerns, despite the fact that during this week there were some players questionable, mostly for the Greens. All players are healthy so it will depend on Obradovic if he will use them.

This season the two teams have already met twice for the Greek Championship. In the first game, Olympiakos lost by 4 points in OAKA Stadium. In Piraeus, the Reds edged the Greens by one point, in a game where Olympiakos had a 20-point lead until the last quarter, but Panathinaikos fought back and the game ended in a dramatic fashion.

Looking at the condition of the teams, Panathinaikos is not as strong as in the previous years, while Olympiakos is performing much better with the addition of Dorsey and Law a couple of months earlier. I believe that the game will be very tough and none of the two teams will win with a big point spread, therefore I think that the 3 points advantage for the Reds deserves the risk.

*Update : Acie Law (Olympiakos) will miss the game due to injury.

NEC Nijmegen vs. Twente

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 18:52:28 +0000

Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Kick-Off: 13:30 GMT

Steve McClaren is leading FC Twente to success, aiming to win the Dutch title for a second time. McClaren was in charge of the Tukkers two years ago, when they were crowned champions for the first time in their history and this season he is showing his credentials once again. Twente is currently trailing leaders AZ Alkmaar by one point, but with a game at hand. The Enchende side is the top-form team in the Dutch Eredivisie, boasting an impressive scoring record of 65 goals in 23 matches (avg. 2.82 goals per game). Last week, they demolished PSV at Philips Stadion 6-2 and on Thursday they defeated Schalke 1-0 in the first-leg of their Europa League tie. Striker Luuk de Jong is enjoying the best season in his career so far, having bagged 20 goals already. “Consistency is what I am asking for”, says Steve McClaren. “I don’t want to play one game at 9 and the next one at 4”, he mentioned when asked about the performances of his side. Midfielder Willem Janssen (22 apps / 5 goals) and Brazilian defender Douglas (22 apps / 2 goals) are suspended, while Denny Landzaat (14 apps / 0 goals) remains sidelined with an injury.

NEC Neijmegen is sitting 12th in the league, five points away from a play-off spot. They didn’t play well last week, yet they managed to earn a point at Utrecht. Alex Pastoor was happy about the fact that his players kept a clean sheet for a second time in a row, after a three-game losing streak. He is obviously hoping that their opponents will show some fatigue following their Europa League tie, therefore he asked his players to play a physical game. On the other hand, it is clear that NEC is missing the services of a prolific striker this season. Bjorn Vleminckx is no longer sending the fans at De Goffer Stadion into ruptures, as the Belgian striker returned to his homeland in the summer and he is now playing for Club Brugge. Coach Pastoor will miss defender Rens van Eijden (19 apps / 1 goal), since he reached a yellow card limit.

We have seen quite a few goal-fests whenever these two sides meet. Taking into consideration Twente’s impressive form, the visitors are clearly the favorites to win and pile the pressure on leaders AZ. NEC Nijmegen has lost all games at home against the top-teams of the league (0-2 vs. PSV, 0-3 vs. Ajax, 0-2 vs. Feyenoord) and I doubt that they can hold off Twente on Sunday.

H2H STATS

27/11/2010 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 2-4 (2)
06/12/2009 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 3-4 (2)
03/04/2009 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 1-1 (X)
11/01/2008 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 2-2 (X)
02/03/2007 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 0-3 (2)
17/02/2006 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 0-3 (2)
13/11/2004 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 0-2 (2)
14/09/2003 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 2-1 (1)
10/11/2002 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 1-2 (2)
21/10/2001 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 2-0 (1)
03/12/2000 Nijmegen vs. Twente: 1-0 (1)

Caen vs. Brest

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 15:16:18 +0000

Venue: Michel d’Ornano, Caen
Kick-Off: 16:00 GMT

Caen’s manager Franck Dumas was furious after the defeat at Nice and he accused the referee, who left his team play with 10 men for most of the second half. However, a day later he issued an apology, acknowledging that he was wrong to have made such comments. SM Caen is now looking to bounce back to winnings when Brest visits Stade Michel d’Ornano on Sunday. Defender Aurelien Montaroup (5 apps / 0 goals) is suspended because of the red hard he was shown in the previous game. The hosts are currently four points clear of the danger zone, but they cannot possibly feel safe, as they will have to face the two title-challengers, Montpellier (1st) and PSG (2nd), in the next couple of weeks.

Everyone in the Brest camp is jubilent after the stunning victory over Marseille. Alex Dupont’s side has lost only one home game this season, yet at the same time it hasn’t won any match on the road. Congolese midfielder Oscar Ewolo (21 apps / 0 goals) is suspended, while John Culma (MF, 13 apps / 0 goals), Gregory Lorenzi (DF, 12 apps / 0 goals), Larsen Toure (FW, 8 apps / 1 goal) and Jonathan Ayite (FW, 6 apps / 0 goals) are sidelined with injuries. Tunisian forward Issam Jemaa (1 app / 0 goals) returns from suspension and Alexandre Alphonse (FW, 3 apps / 0 goals) is also available after recovering from an ankle injury.

This is a pretty balanced encounter to my eyes. Caen needs a positive result ahead of the difficult schedule ahead, but they should have a tough task breaking the best defense in the French Ligue 1. On the other side, Brest is a goal-shy team that doesn’t score much (especially away from home). 9 out of Brest’s 12 away games were draws at half time and you may notice that all of their last 5 visits to Caen were half-time draws as well. I believe that I have made my point clear…

H2H STATS

28/08/2010 Caen vs. Brest: 0-2 (2)
02/04/2010 Caen vs. Brest: 1-0 (1)
08/08/2006 Caen vs. Brest: 1-0 (1)
16/12/2005 Caen vs. Brest: 3-1 (1)

Stoke vs. Norwich

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 00:17:13 +0000

Venue: Britannia Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent
Kick-Off: 15:00 GMT

There will be a festive mood at the Britannia stadium on Saturday, when the Potters take on Norwich City. Members of the 1972 team which won the League Cup will receive a warm welcome by the fans, to mark the 40th anniversary of one of the greatest achievements in the history of the club. Manager Tony Pulis is just hoping that his players won’t get distracted from the game and earn the three points ahead of the difficult schedule coming up. Stoke City will visit the Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea, clash with Liverpool in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals and face Tottenham at White Hart Lane before returning to the Britannia in order to take on Manchester City. A win against Norwich will move the Potters ahead of their opponents in the standings, allowing them not to worry so much about the potential losses in the next league matches. Following their Europa League exit, Stoke defeated Swansea and put an end to a four-game losing streak in the Premier League. Tony Pulis has almost a full squad to choose from and h2h stats favor the hosts, as Stoke are unbeaten in their last six home games against Norwich.

Norwich got close to earning a surprise draw against Manchester United last week, but Ryan Giggs saved the Red Devils with a late winner. The Canaries have been overachieving this season, proving wrong all those predictions that they would struggle to avoid relegation. They are sitting comfortably 8th in the EPL with 35 points and they have a much easier fixture ahead, compared to Stoke. Leicester stunned them a couple of weeks earlier and forced them out of the FA Cup, so there is nothing else on their mind right now besides securing the best possible finishing spot in the league table. Manager Paul Lambert will miss again defenders Marc Tierney (17 apps / 0 goals) and Daniel Ayala (7 apps / 0 goals) for the trip to the Britannia.

I believe that Norwich will not spoil the party for Stoke, since they are not desperate to win points. Away wins are not common at all whenever these two sides meet and the Potters should take a positive result on Saturday ahead of the tough schedule ahead. Although a draw is also a possible result to my eyes, I am going to take my risks and back Stoke City to win. 1-0 or 2-1 my favorite scores.

H2H STATS

01/12/2007 Stoke vs. Norwich: 2-1 (1)
28/10/2006 Stoke vs. Norwich: 5-0 (1)
29/08/2005 Stoke vs. Norwich: 3-1 (1)
20/09/2003 Stoke vs. Norwich: 1-1 (X)
26/08/2002 Stoke vs. Norwich: 1-1 (X)

Macclesfield vs. Plymouth

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 00:08:54 +0000

Venue: Moss Rose, Macclesfield
Kick-Off: 19:45 GMT

Plymouth Argyle take the trip up north to Macclesfield, aiming to earn a positive result against their relegation rivals. The Pilgrims are just one point clear from the danger zone, although they do breathe safer now after a four-game unbeaten run. During that period, they won at Accrington and drew the other three games (all at home, against Dag & Red, Barnet and Southend). Manager Carl Fletcher should feel sattisfied about keeping three clean sheets in a row, yet he would definitely like to see a few more goals from his players. Striker Warren Feeney (20 apps / 2 goals) is sidelined with a calf injury, while there are doubts over the fitness of Joe Lennox (FW, 3 apps / 0 goals). Finally, defender Onismor Bhasera (17 apps / 0 goals) is on international duty with Zimbabwe and Robbie Williams will take his place.

Macclesfield held on at Oxford and earned their first point after a dreadful run of eight straight defeats. Gary Simpson’s side must try a lot harder of course, in order to stop sinking further down the table. The Silkmen have been plagued with injuries and the squad is constantly rotated, which is a major disadvantage in the effort to find the right chemistry. Defender Elliott Hewitt (20 apps / 0 goals) was the latest victim, as he took a kick in the shin on Saturday. Hewitt’s name is added to the lengthy injury list, which includes: Tony Diagne (DF, 31 apps / 3 goals), Jose Veiga (GK, 31 apps) Ross Draper (MF, 21 apps / 3 goals), Lewis Chalmers (MF, 16 apps / 1 goal) and Paul Morgan (DF, 3 apps / 0 goals). Tuesday’s game may come too soon for defender Nat Brown (26 apps / 0 goals), who is struggling with a back problem. The visitors will once again play without defender Carl Tremarco (28 apps / 0 goals), who will serve the last game of a three-match suspension.

Plymouth won 2-0 at home and if they manage to grab a league double over Macclesfield, it would be a fatal blow to their opponents. The Silkmen have a three-point advantage over Argyle and they will definitely fight to avoid being dragged to a survival dog-fight. Given the importance of this game, I expect a concervative approach from both teams. Macclesfield usually plays it safe in the first half and that’s the reason that they have drawn 12 out of their 16 games at Moss Rose. On the other hand, Plymouth hasn’t conceded a goal in the last three games and my estimation is that we will probably see another half-time draw today.

H2H STATS

02/03/2002 Macclesfield vs. Plymouth: 1-1 (X)
03/02/2001 Macclesfield vs. Plymouth: 3-1 (1)

Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard

Sun, 26 Feb 2012 23:42:21 +0000

Venue: GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht
Kick-Off: 19:00 GMT

FC Dordrecht could have achieved much more in the Dutch Jupiler League, if they weren’t so poor travellers. Their home record is one of the best in the league and as a matter of fact only leaders Zwolle managed to escape from GN Bouw Stadion with a win. Besides that defeat, the Sheep Heads have recorded 8 wins and 3 draws. It’s the other way around on the road though, as they have won just one of their 10 away games. Friday’s win over Almere put an end to a three-game winless run and today they play a second consecutive game at home, aiming to avenge the 2-0 defeat at Sittard in late November. Interim coach Virgil Breetveld seems to be coping well with the pressure ever since he was called to replace Theo Bos, who was diagnosed with cancer earlier this year. Striker Shayron Curiel (16 apps / 4 goals) remains unavailable, following his arrest on robbery charges.

Fortuna Sittard is also a team which relies heavily on their homeground. Their 4-1 triumph at Almere was the first on the road this season and they coupled that success with a 3-2 disposal of Volendam. So far they haven’t recorded three wins on a trot and Tini Ruijs acknowledged that they have a tough task at GN Bouw Stadion. It’s not just because of their woeful 1W-2D-7L away record, but also due to the missing players. Midfielder Yoan de Boer (18 apps / 0 goals) reached a yellow card limit and he is suspended. Defender Rick Geenen (19 apps / 2 goals) and midfielder Richard Stolte (15 apps / 4 goals) are sidelined with injuries, while there are doubts over the fitness of defenders Fernando Ricksen (15 apps / 1 goal) and Marc Wagemakers (13 apps / 0 goals).

Talking about the Dutch Eerste Divisie, I don’t feel comfortable backing ANY team to win at odds below 1.80 as we often see weird results. Even if Dordrecht do appear to be the favorites to take the win, the price is too low for my taste. Instead, I am going to back them to win at half time. The odds are around 2.40 and it’s worth noticing that Dordrecht have taken the lead at half time in 8 out of their 12 games at home, which is actually the best record of any team in the league.

H2H STATS

21/01/2011 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 3-0 (1)
04/12/2009 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 2-1 (1)
24/10/2008 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 3-0 (1)
01/02/2008 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-0 (1)
30/03/2007 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-3 (2)
28/10/2005 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 6-1 (1)
20/08/2004 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-1 (X)
17/10/2003 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 0-1 (2)
23/05/2003 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-2 (2)